The port at Tartus is in the middle of a significant expansion that includes the construction of a new floating dock for ship repair.įriends again? Syrian president Bashar al-Assad with the Egyptian foreign minister, Sameh Shoukry in Damascus, February 2023. It has carefully nurtured its military connections with Syria over the past decade, starting with its small naval facility at Tartus, which has the potential to give Russia a warm-water Mediterranean port. Russia is also likely to benefit, if less directly. Beijing will benefit by taking a key role in facilitating the deal, thereby increasing its status across the Islamic Middle East and north Africa. The early indications are that beneficiaries of the two developments will include China and the individual regional autocracies involved. The move is championed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and along with the Saudi-Iran agreement has the potential to reorder the balance of power in the region. It will also mean getting Syria back into the Arab League, from which it has been suspended since 2012 following its brutal suppression of Arab Spring protesters. This should involve an easing of sanctions and more regional economic integration. The essence of the Times story was that some Arab states want to normalise relations with Damascus – even if this is opposed by the US and its western allies. If this report is accurate, the implications of the two developments for Middle East politics are substantial – not least because of recent social and political developments in Israel and Iran. The previous week, writing in the Times, Middle East correspondent Michael Spencer revealed a plan by Gulf states to restore relations with the Assad regime in Syria. While a long way from bringing an end to conflicts such as the bitter war in Yemen, it is, as Simon Mabon noted in an article for the Conversation, a positive development. On March 10, in a deal brokered by China and signed in Beijing, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to reestablish diplomatic relations and reopen embassies after a seven-year break. Following political developments in the past fortnight, two state-level policy changes in the Middle East are likely to combine to have a substantial impact on regional stability.
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